Via Atrios, I found this article at the American Prospect, which demonstrates an example of a very
common and very serious math error that’s constantly made in the media: unit errors. If you want to
compare two numbers, you need to make sure that they’re actually numbers that can be compared. You can’t meaningfully compare height in inches to height in centimeters; you can’t compare income in dollars
to income in Euro’s – to do a meaningful comparison, you need to convert to a common unit.
The specific error pointed out the by Prospect was in the New York Times. The Times published an article discussing politics and economics in Germany. They make some silly arguments about how the Germans don’t like goverment economic reforms because they’re all a bunch of lazy socialists who like to have the government take care of them. In support of that, they compare the
unemployment rate of Germany to the unemployment rate in the US. And that’s where they make their
error: the unemployment rates that they compare don’t measure the same thing. It’s a slightly
subtle kind of units problem – but it is a units problem.
The German government reports official unemployment numbers using a unit which is “percentage of
employable people with full-time employment”. By contrast, the US government reports official unemployment numbers in units of “percentage of people eligible to work with any employment”. In the German figures, if you work a part time job 20 hours per week, you’re considered unemployed. In the US, if you work a part time job 20 hours per week, you’re considered employed. A huge portion of the “unemployed” Germans would be considered employed in the US; or put the other way, a large number of people who are considered employed in the US because they’re working part time jobs would be considered unemployed
in Germany because they don’t have full-time jobs.
This difference in units is not an unknown or obscure fact. The Organization of Economic
Co-Operation and Development – which is as close as exists to an official authority on these kinds of
statistics – clearly documents the difference between how different governments report unemployment. They
further provide a standard measure of unemployment, which is almost the same as the US measure. (The
difference is that the US doesn’t consider you unemployed if you’re employable but not currently looking
for work; the OECD numbers consider anyone eligible for work but not working as unemployed.)
The Times cites the German rate as 9%, compared to the US rate of 5%. But that’s comparing apples to oranges. The accurate comparison, of the OECD is 6% in Germany and 5% in the US. Not nearly such a
big difference as the original article makes out.
This kind of error is very common, particularly in reporting about economics. But it’s very bad math.
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