Category Archives: Bad Math

Iterative Hockey Stick Analysis? Gimme a break!

This past weekend, my friend Orac sent me a link to an interesting piece
of bad math. One of Orac’s big interest is vaccination and
anti-vaccinationists. The piece is a newsletter by a group calling itself the “Sound Choice
Pharmaceutical Institute” (SCPI), which purports to show a link
between vaccinations and autism. But instead of the usual anti-vac rubbish about
thimerosol, they claim that “residual human DNA contamintants from aborted human fetal cells”
causes autism.

Among others, Orac already covered the nonsense
of that from a biological/medical
perspective. What he didn’t do, and why he forwarded this newsletter to me, is because
the basis of their argument is that they discovered key change points in the
autism rate that correlate perfectly with the introduction of various vaccines.

In fact, they claim to have discovered three different inflection points:

  1. 1979, the year that the MMR 2 vaccine was approved in the US;
  2. 1988, the year that a 2nd dose of the MMR 2 was added to the recommended vaccination
    schedule; and
  3. 1995, the year that the chickenpox vaccine was approved in the US.

They claim to have discovered these inflection points using “iterative hockey stick analysis”.

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Shocking Fraud from Financial Scum

Against my better judgement, I’ve ended up writing a lot about the
financial mess that we’re currently going through. If you’ve read that, you
know that my opinion is that the mess amounts to a giant pile of fraud.

But even having spent so much time reading and studying what was
going on, the latest news from the financial mess shocks me.
Even knowing how utterly sleazy and dishonest many people in the financial world
have been, even knowing about the stuff they’ve been doing, the kinds of
out and out fraud that they’ve perpetrated, the latest news makes them
look even more evil than I could have imagined.

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Financial Shenanigans: the Repo 105

glenfarclas-105-aged-40-years-lr.jpeg

I’m glad to report that electricity has been restored to the Chu-Carroll
household. So now I’m trying to catch up.

During the outage, I got a bunch of questions about the latest news coming
out of the big financial disasters. A major report came out about the failure
of Lehman Brothers, and one thing that’s been mentioned frequently is
something called repo105.

The whole repo105 thing is interesting to me, not so much because of what
it actually means, but because of how it’s been reported. The term has been
mentioned everywhere – but trying to find any information about just what the
hell it means seems to be next to impossible. It’s absolutely amazing how many
places have reported on it without bothering to explain it.

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Grandiose Crankery: Cantor, Godel, Church, Turing, … Morons!

A bunch of people have been asking me to take a look at yet another piece of Cantor crankery recently posted to Arxiv. In general, I’m sick and tired of Cantor crankery – it’s been occupying much too much space on this blog lately. But this one is a real prize. It’s an approach that I’ve never seen before: instead of the usual weaseling around, this one goes straight for Cantor’s proof.

But it does much, much more than that. In terms of ambition, this thing really takes the cake. According to the author, one J. A. Perez, he doesn’t just refute Cantor. No, that would be trivial! Every run-of-the-mill crackpot claims to refute cantor! Perez claims to refute Cantor, Gödel, Church, and Turing. Among others. He claims to reform the axiom of infinity in set theory to remove the problems that it supposedly causes. He claims to be able to use his reformed axiom of infinity together with his refutation of Cantor to get rid of the continuum hypothesis, and to eliminate any strange results proved by the axiom of choice.

Yes, Mr. (Dr? Professor? J. Random Schmuck?) Perez is nothing if not a true mastermind, a mathematical genius of utterly epic proportions! The man who single-handedly refutes pretty much all of 20th century mathematics! The man who has determined that now we must throw away Cantor and Gödel, and reinstate Hilbert’s program. The perfect mathematics is at hand, if we will only listen to his utter brilliance!

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Animal Experimentation and Simulation

In my post yesterday, I briefly mentioned the problem with simulations
as a replacement for animal testing. But I’ve gotten a couple of self-righteous
emails from people criticizing that: they’ve all argued that given the
quantity of computational resources available to us today, of course
we can do all of our research using simulations. I’ll quote a typical example
from the one person who actually posted a comment along these lines:

This doesn’t in any way reduce the importance of informing people about
the alternatives to animal testing. It strikes me as odd that the author of
the blogpost is a computer scientist, yet seems uninformed about the fact,
that the most interesting alternatives to animal testing are coming from that
field. Simulation of very complex systems is around the corner, especially
since computing power is becoming cheaper all the time.

That said, I also do think it’s OK to voice opposition to animal testing,
because there *are* alternatives. People who ignore the alternatives seem to
have other issues going on, for example a sort of pleasure at the idea of
power over others – also nonhumans.

I’ll briefly comment on the obnoxious self-righteousness of this idiot.
They started off their comment with the suggestion that the people who are
harassing Dr. Ringach’s children aren’t really animal rights
protestors; they’re people paid by opponents of the AR movement in order to
discredit it. And then goes on to claim that anyone who doesn’t see the
obvious alternatives to animal testing really do it because they
get their rocks off torturing poor defenseless animals.

Dumbass.

Anyway: my actual argument is below the fold.

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Disco Strikes Out Again: Casey Luskin, Kitzmiller, and New Information

For a lot of people, I seem to have become the go-to blogger for
information theory stuff. I really don’t deserve it: Jeff Shallit at
Recursivity knows a whole lot more than I do. But I do my best.

Anyway, several people pointed out that over at the Disco Institute,
resident Legal Eagle Casey Luskin has started posting an eight-part
series on how the Kitzmiller case (the legal case concerning the teaching of
intelligent design in Dover PA) was decided wrong. In Kitzmiller, the
intelligent design folks didn’t just lose; they utterly humiliated themselves.
But Casey has taken it on himself to demonstrate why, not only did they
not make themselves look like a bunch of dumb-asses, but they
in fact should have won, had the judge not been horribly biased against them.

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A Crank among Cranks: Debating John Gabriel

So, remember back in December, I wrote a post about a Cantor crank who had a Knol page supposedly refuting Cantor’s diagonalization?

This week, I foolishly let myself get drawn into an extended conversation with him in comments. Since it’s a comment thread on an old post that had been inactive for close to two months before this started, I assume most people haven’t followed it. In an attempt to salvage something from the time I wasted with him, I’m going to share the discussion with you in this new post. It’s entertaining, in a pathetic sort of way; and it’s enlightening, in that it’s one of the most perfect demonstrations of the behavior of a crank that I’ve yet encountered. Enjoy!

I’m going to edit for formatting purposes, and I’ll interject a few comments, but the text of the messages is absolutely untouched – which you can verify, if you want, by checking the comment thread on the original post. The actual discussion starts with this comment, although there’s a bit of content-free back and forth in the dozen or so comments before that.

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Cantor Crankery and Worthless Wankery

Poor Georg Cantor.

During his life, he suffered from dreadful depression. He was mocked by
his mathematical colleagues, who didn’t understand his work. And after his
death, he’s become the number one target of mathematical crackpots.

As I’ve mentioned before, I get a lot of messages either from or
about Cantor cranks. I could easily fill this blog with nothing but
Cantor-crankery. (In fact, I just created a new category for Cantor-crankery.) I generally try to ignore it, except for that rare once-in-a-while that there’s something novel.

A few days ago, via Twitter, a reader sent me a link to a new monstrosity
that was posted to arxiv, called Cantor vs Cantor. It’s novel and amusing. Still wrong,
of course, but wrong in an amusingly silly way. This one, at least, doesn’t quite
fall into the usual trap of ignoring Cantor while supposedly refuting him.

You see, 99 times out of 100, Cantor cranks claim to have
some construction that generates a perfect one-to-one mapping between the
natural numbers and the reals, and that therefore, Cantor must have been wrong.
But they never address Cantors proof. Cantors proof shows how, given any
purported mapping from the natural numbers to the real, you can construct at example
of a real number which isn’t in the map. By ignoring that, the cranks’ arguments
fail: Cantor’s method still generates a counterexample to their mappings. You
can’t defeat Cantor’s proof without actually addressing it.

Of course, note that I said that he didn’t quite fall for the
usual trap. Once you decompose his argument, it does end up with the same problem. But he at least tries to address it.

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The End Of The World is Coming in Just 501 Days!

A lot of people have been sending me links to a numerology article, in which yet another numerological idiot claims to have identified the date of the end of the world. This time, the idiot claims that it’s going to happen on May 21, 2011.

I’ve written a lot about numerology-related stuff before. What makes this example particularly egregious and worth writing about is that it’s not just an article on some bozo’s internet website: this is an article from the San Francisco Chronicle, which treats a pile of numerological bullshit as if it’s completely respectable and credible.

As I’ve said before: the thing about numerology is that there are so many ways of combining numbers together that if you’re willing to spend enough time searching, you can find some way of producing any result that you want. This is pretty much a classic example of that.

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Big Numbers and Air Travel

As you’ve surely heard by now, on christmas day, some idiot attempted to
blow up an airplane by stuffing his underwear full of explosives and then
lighting his crotch on fire. There’s been a ton of coverage of this – most of
which takes the form of people running around wetting their pants in terror.

One thing which I’ve noticed, though, is that one aspect of this whole mess
ties in to one of my personal obsessions: scale. We humans are really,
really lousy at dealing with big numbers. We just absolutely
have a piss-poor ability to really comprehend numbers, or to take what we
know, and put it together in a quantitative way.

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