This past weekend, my friend Orac sent me a link to an interesting piece
of bad math. One of Orac’s big interest is vaccination and
anti-vaccinationists. The piece is a newsletter by a group calling itself the “Sound Choice
Pharmaceutical Institute” (SCPI), which purports to show a link
between vaccinations and autism. But instead of the usual anti-vac rubbish about
thimerosol, they claim that “residual human DNA contamintants from aborted human fetal cells”
causes autism.
Among others, Orac already covered the nonsense
of that from a biological/medical
perspective. What he didn’t do, and why he forwarded this newsletter to me, is because
the basis of their argument is that they discovered key change points in the
autism rate that correlate perfectly with the introduction of various vaccines.
In fact, they claim to have discovered three different inflection points:
- 1979, the year that the MMR 2 vaccine was approved in the US;
- 1988, the year that a 2nd dose of the MMR 2 was added to the recommended vaccination
schedule; and - 1995, the year that the chickenpox vaccine was approved in the US.
They claim to have discovered these inflection points using “iterative hockey stick analysis”.